Categorieseconomy, financing, Home selling, home values, info for buyers, info for home owners, Metropolist, Real Estate, Seattle Real Estate, Seattledigs, Selling your home, taxes, Washington real estate

Is the Economic Recovery Beating All Projections?

Earlier this year, many economists and market analysts were predicting an apocalyptic financial downturn that would potentially rattle the U.S. economy for years to come. They immediately started to compare it to the Great Depression of a century ago. Six months later, the economy is still trying to stabilize, but it is evident that the country will not face the total devastation projected by some. As we continue to battle the pandemic, forecasts are now being revised upward. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) just reported:

“The U.S. economy and labor market are recovering from the coronavirus-related downturn more quickly than previously expected, economists said in a monthly survey.

Business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect gross domestic product to increase at an annualized rate of 23.9% in the third quarter. That is up sharply from an expectation of an 18.3% growth rate in the previous survey.”

What Shape Will the Recovery Take?

Economists have historically cast economic recoveries in the form of one of four letters – V, U, W, or L.

V-shaped recovery is all about the speed of the recovery. This quick recovery is treated as the best-case scenario for any economy that enters a recession. NOTE: Economists are now also using a new term for this type of recovery called the “Nike Swoosh.” It is a form of the V-shape that may take several months to recover, thus resembling the Nike Swoosh logo.

U-shaped recovery is when the economy experiences a sharp fall into a recession, like the V-shaped scenario. In this case, however, the economy remains depressed for a longer period of time, possibly several years, before growth starts to pick back up again.

W-shaped recovery can look like an economy is undergoing a V-shaped recovery until it plunges into a second, often smaller, contraction before fully recovering to pre-recession levels.

An L-shaped recovery is seen as the worst-case scenario. Although the economy returns to growth, it is at a much lower base than pre-recession levels, which means it takes significantly longer to fully recover.

Many experts predicted that this would be a dreaded L-shaped recovery, like the 2008 recession that followed the housing market collapse. Fortunately, that does not seem to be the case.

The same WSJ survey mentioned above asked the economists which letter this recovery will most resemble. Here are the results:Is the Economic Recovery Beating All Projections? | MyKCM

What About the Unemployment Numbers?

It’s difficult to speak positively about a jobs report that shows millions of Americans are still out of work. However, when we compare it to many forecasts from earlier this year, the numbers are much better than most experts expected. There was talk of numbers that would rival the Great Depression when the nation suffered through four consecutive years of unemployment over 20%.

The first report after the 2020 shutdown did show a 14.7% unemployment rate, but much to the surprise of many analysts, the rate has decreased each of the last three months and is now in the single digits (8.4%).

Economist Jason Furman, Professor at Harvard University‘s John F. Kennedy School of Government and the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the previous administration, recently put it into context:

“An unemployment rate of 8.4% is much lower than most anyone would have thought it a few months ago. It is still a bad recession but not a historically unprecedented event or one we need to go back to the Great Depression for comparison.”

The economists surveyed by the WSJ also forecasted unemployment rates going forward:

  • 2021: 6.3%
  • 2022: 5.2%
  • 2023: 4.9%

The following table shows how the current employment situation compares to other major disruptions in our economy:Is the Economic Recovery Beating All Projections? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The economic recovery still has a long way to go. So far, we are doing much better than most thought would be possible.

Photo by AbsolutVision on Unsplash

Categorieseconomy, Home selling, home values, info for buyers, info for home owners, Metropolist, Real Estate, Seattle, Seattle Real Estate, Seattledigs, Selling your home, Washington real estate

Two New Surveys Indicate Urban to Suburban Lean

There has been much talk around the possibility that Americans are feeling less enamored with the benefits of living in a large city and now may be longing for the open spaces that suburban and rural areas provide.

In a recent Realtor Magazine article, they discussed the issue and addressed comments made by Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“While migration trends were toward urban centers before the pandemic, real estate thought leaders have predicted a suburban resurgence as home buyers seek more space for social distancing. Now the data is supporting that theory. Coronavirus and work-from-home flexibility is sparking the trend reversal, Yun said. More first-time home buyers and minorities have also been looking to the suburbs for affordability, he added.”

NAR surveyed agents across the country asking them to best describe the locations where their clients are looking for homes (they could check multiple answers). Here are the results of the survey:

  • 47% suburban/subdivision
  • 39% rural area
  • 25% small town
  • 14% urban area/central city
  • 13% resort community/recreational area

According to real estate agents, there’s a strong preference for less populated locations such as suburban and rural areas.

Real Estate Brokers and Owners Agree

Zelman & Associates surveys brokers and owners of real estate firms for their monthly Real Estate Brokers Report. The last report revealed that 68% see either a ‘moderate’ or ‘significant’ shift to more suburban locations. Here are the results of the survey:Two New Surveys Indicate Urban to Suburban Lean | MyKCM

Bottom Line

No one knows if this will be a short-term trend or an industry game-changer. For now, there appears to be a migration to more open environments.

Photo by Nick Sarvari on Unsplash

Categorieseconomy, financing, Home selling, home values, info for buyers, info for home owners, Real Estate, Seattle Real Estate, Seattledigs, Selling your home, Washington real estate

Homebuyer Traffic Is on the Rise

One of the biggest surprises of 2020 is the resilience of the residential real estate market. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist of the National Association of Realtors (NAR), is now forecasting that more homes will sell this year than last year. He’s also predicting home sales to increase by 8-12% next year. There’s strong evidence that he will be right.

ShowingTime, a leading showing software and market stat service provider for the residential real estate industry, just reported on their latest the ShowingTime Showing Index:

“Home buyer traffic jumped again in July, recording a 60.7 percent year-over-year increase in nationwide showing activity.”

That means there are 60% more buyers setting appointments to see homes than there were at this same time last year. The number of potential purchasers was also up dramatically in every region of the country:

  • The Northeast was up 76.6%
  • The West was up 56.7%
  • The Midwest was up 52.1%
  • The South was up 46.7%

The Housing Market Is Showing a ‘V’ Type Recovery

ShowingTime also indicates the real estate market has already come back from the downturn earlier this year that was caused by shelter-in-place orders. Here are the year-over-year numbers for each region on a monthly basis (See graph below):We’re way ahead of where we were at this time last year. This data validates the thoughts of Frank Martell, President and CEO of CoreLogic, who recently noted:

“On an aggregated level, the housing economy remains rock solid despite the shock and awe of the pandemic.”

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling your house, this may be a great time to get the best price and the most favorable terms.

CategoriesHome selling, home values, info for buyers, info for home owners, Metropolist, Real Estate, Seattle, Seattle neigborhoods, Seattle Real Estate, Seattledigs, Selling your home, Washington real estate

A Surprising Shift to the ‘Burbs May Be on the Rise

While many people across the U.S. have traditionally enjoyed the perks of an urban lifestyle, some who live in more populated city limits today are beginning to rethink their current neighborhoods. Being in close proximity to everything from the grocery store to local entertainment is definitely a perk, especially if you can also walk to some of these hot spots and have a short commute to work. The trade-off, however, is that highly populated cities can lack access to open space, a yard, and other desirable features. These are the kinds of things you may miss when spending a lot of time at home. When it comes to social distancing, as we’ve experienced recently, the newest trend seems to be around re-evaluating a once-desired city lifestyle and trading it for suburban or rural living. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com notes:

“With the re-opening of the economy scheduled to be cautious, the impact on consumer preferences will likely shift buying behavior…consumers are already looking for larger homes, bigger yards, access to the outdoors and more separation from neighbors. As we move into the recovery stage, these preferences will play an important role in the type of homes consumers will want to buy. They will also play a role in the coming discussions on zoning and urban planning. While higher density has been a hallmark of urban development over the past decade, the pandemic may lead to a re-thinking of space allocation.”

The Harris Poll recently surveyed 2,000 Americans, and 39% of the respondents who live in urban areas indicated the COVID-19 crisis has caused them to consider moving to a less populated area.A Surprising Shift to the ‘Burbs May Be on the Rise | MyKCMToday, moving outside the city limits is also more feasible than ever, especially as Americans have quickly become more accustomed to – and more accepting of – remote work. According to the Pew Research Center, access to the Internet has increased significantly in rural and suburban areas, making working from home more accessible. The number of people working from home has also spiked considerably, even before the pandemic came into play this year.

Bottom Line

If you have a home in the suburbs or a rural area, you may see an increasing number of buyers looking for a property like yours. If you’re thinking of buying and don’t mind a commute to work for the well-being of your family, you may want to consider looking at homes for sale outside the city. Let’s connect today to discuss the options available in our area.

Categoriesfinancing, home values, info for buyers, info for home owners, Real Estate, Selling your home, Washington real estate

Buying Your Digs with Domenica Lovaglia

Hi there! Thank you so much for giving me the opportunity to consult with you about your move. I hope you are as excited as I am to get started on this journey buying your new digs.

As we move forward, there are a few items I would like to refer you to. It’s totally possible I have already handed a physical packet to you. On the other hand, if our meeting is going to be virtual, or somewhere down the road, this might serve as the best place to “give” you these items.

If you click on the photo on the right, you will find my buyer trifold. This has some information about me and about buying in general. I give it to everyone who has a consultation with me, whether I’ve known them for 10 years or 10 minutes. Take a minute to check it out.

Buyer Infographic

Next is the Buyer Infographic.

This is exactly what it looks like in the picture. It’s a roadmap that will outline the steps from here (our consult) to closing. When you click on it, take note that there are two pages. The second page gives you a brief description of each step.

It would be a great idea to familiarize yourself with each step a little and write down any questions you might have. Most will probably be answered as we go along, but I’m happy to go over anything in advance.

Metropolist Magazine

I may have already said this when we spoke, but in case I didn’t, the Buyer Consult is something I do with all clients. I’ll speak to this more when we sit down but this is an integral part of the process and the process is what drives every transaction from start to finish.

Bonus: So what’s the image on the right? Another thing we do at Metropolist is produce a bi-annual print magazine. In our most recent version you will find statistical information about the current market, broken down by neighborhood as well as an overall look at the King County Metro area. You will also get feature articles about our brokers, and fun anecdotes about life as a real estate agent.

I look forward to sitting with you (virtually or in person), and I’m excited to see how I can help you buy your home. In the meantime, write down any questions you have about the process and we will go over them soon! Buyer Agency